Bitcoin Price Prediction: Binance Just Bought $100M in BTC – And They’re About to Drop $1 Billion More

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is recovering and trading near $78,406 as it works to stabilize after a large $2.5 billion liquidation. Binance began rebalancing its treasury by buying $100 million in Bitcoin during the recent price dip, drawing attention from the market. This is not just a single trade. It marks the beginning of a $1 billion accumulation plan that aims to tie the world’s largest exchange more closely to Bitcoin, the main asset in the crypto ecosystem.

The “Buy the Dip” Breakdown: Binance’s $1B SAFU Shift

On February 2, 2026, Binance officially kicked off its plan to convert the entirety of its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) from stablecoins into Bitcoin.

This emergency insurance fund, set up in 2018 to protect users from major losses, is changing its risk profile to better match crypto-native principles.

• Initial Batch Completed: Binance converted $100 million worth of stablecoins into approximately 1,315 BTC.
• Average Entry Price: The transaction was executed at an average price of roughly $77,409.89 per coin as Bitcoin traded near nine-month lows.
• Ongoing Buying Pressure: With approximately $900 million in stablecoin buying power still remaining, Binance intends to complete the full conversion within the next 27–28 days.
• The Floor Mechanism: Binance has committed to maintaining the SAFU fund at a $1 billion target value. Crucially, if price fluctuations cause the fund to drop below $800 million, the exchange will top it back up by purchasing more Bitcoin, creating an implicit support mechanism for the market.

Market Momentum: The “Warsh-Driven” Stabilization

The broader price action is currently defined by a “stabilization bounce” following a period of extreme fear. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair initially sparked a risk-off rotation that bolstered the U.S. Dollar, but Bitcoin has found resilient structural support near the $74,500 mark.

• Institutional Resiliency: While some retail sentiment has cooled, corporations like Hyperscale Data continue to expand their holdings, now possessing over 575 BTC.
• Sentiment Reset: The Fear & Greed Index recently hit extreme lows of 17, a reading that historically signals a potential market bottom before a relief rally.
• Dominance Levels: Bitcoin maintains a commanding 57.55% market share, acting as the primary anchor for the total $2.72 trillion crypto market capitalization.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis: Spotting the Next Breakout

Bitcoin price prediction is strongly bearish as BTC’s daily chart shows a battle between falling resistance and key Fibonacci support while the market searches for direction. Bitcoin is now testing the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $78,400. Staying above this level is important to avoid dropping back to the $74,666 support.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dropped to about 28, which is considered oversold. This means the recent sell-off was steep, and a strong short squeeze could be on the way.

The price remains below the 50-day EMA and 200-day SMA, which are now strong resistance levels around $85,000.

Significant liquidity pools are found near $70,837 and $67,387, which could act as magnetic support if the current rebound slows down.

Conclusion: A Strategic Bet on the Future of Money

Binance’s move to convert the SAFU fund is more than just a balance sheet change. It’s a calculated bet on Bitcoin’s long-term role as a mainstream macro asset. By removing $1 billion in stablecoin exposure, Binance is signaling that it sees Bitcoin as the ultimate Premier long-term store of value.

While short-term volatility is still high, steady buying from Binance and other institutions is creating a solid base for the next cycle.

Trade Idea: Watch for a confirmed daily close above $80,700 to consider a tactical long entry, aiming for a move toward $88,000 with a stop-loss below $74,000.

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